Something of a puzzle in this BBC report on the latest hot air to emanate from Chris Huhne (deluded, green, Liberal mouthpiece) (emphasis mine) :

The government will help pay to train 1,000 apprentices to insulate homes as part of its “green deal” energy plan.

Announcing the move, Chris Huhne said a “big injection” of skills and cash was required if ambitious energy efficiency targets were to be realised.

…

Under the plan, the government will cover the cost of training 16- to 18-year-old apprentices and will share the cost for over 19-year-olds with businesses, which may include B&Q and British Gas.

It is envisaged that the apprentices will become experts in installing cavity and solid wall insulation in homes and more energy-efficient heating systems in business premises.

Ministers want to accelerate the green deal programme – under which homeowners will get their properties insulated at no upfront cost and reimburse firms carrying out the work from the savings they make on their energy bills.

Mr Huhne said he hoped the programme would sustain 100,000 jobs within five years and that a “step-change” was needed to make energy-saving technology more widely available.

So we have a promise of 100,000 jobs under this specific scheme to install cavity wall and loft insulation with a little bit of business work thrown in for good measure.

Is this realistic or pie in the sky type cock waffle?

Hune mentions in the quote “hoped the programme” which I will take to mean just this specific one, as in the green deal programme.

Well lets have a look at the sums :

Firstly some assumptions (figures rounded for neatness).

• Of the 29 million houses in the UK, 25% already have fully insulated lofts (English Housing Survey, housing stock spreadsheet) leaving 22 million to work on.
• 35% already have fully insulated cavity walls (same source) leaving 19 million to work on.
• Take up of solar panels is 20% of all houses or around 6 million homes.
• cavity wall teams are three people and do 3 jobs per day – 1 person days per house.
• loft insulation is again teams of 3 doing 3 jobs per day – 1 person days per house.
• solar panels are teams of 3 doing 1 house per day – 3 person days per house.

For insulation we have 41 million person days of work and for solar panels we have 18 million person days.

Our brand new green workforce of 100,000 will then have 59 million person days of work or 590 days work.

Taking a standard 5 day week and 48 week year that is 2.5 years of work for all these people before there is nothing left to insulate or install.

What then?

Not a very long lived green economy in my view but convenently long enough to employ 100,000 people until just after the next election of course!

All with (in my view) rather generous assumptions on take up rates unless it becomes a legal requirement which I would not put past them at all.

I would also suggest that those work rates are on the generously low side having seen the speed at which a 3 man team did all 10 terraced properties across the road in just 2 days and certainly not working a full 8 hour shift.

Whatever visions there are of a green economy, I don’t think this one will get very far.

Even if the UK wanted to get into the manufacture of renewable energy devices, we cannot compete on wages, taxes or much else compared with China and the likes.

The only solution for government would be to keep ratchetting up the insulation requirements (wrap-around house cozies perhap?) to ensure the continued employment of their green workforce at the continued detriment to everyone elses pockets of course.