After last years news of one US bank after another being taken under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), things seem to have gone rather quiet which could suggest that everything is now rosy in the world of American banking.
Having spotted the following pair of graphs at ritholz.com, however, the picture looks a lot less rosy and has more of a “what on earth is going on that isn’t being reported” look to it.
The second chart shows, for example, that the rate of failures so far this year is running at around twice 2009’s rate which doesn’t inspire much confidence in all the reports of a recovery at all.
Add to that ongoing problems in the world of commercial real estate which seems to be concentrated in just the kind of local and regional banks that the FDIC is busy hoovering up on the quiet (emphasis mine) :
Lawmakers and regulators are desperately hoping that a strong economic rebound will stimulate job growth, consumption and demand for the commercial real estate that banks continue to hold.
But let’s be real: There isn’t enough time on any clock to ever win that race.
Why do I say that? Because, in order for the United States to rebound to a full-employment rate of at least 5%, the nation’s economy would have to create 200,000 jobs per month – for seven years.
Although all the big banks hold significant amounts of underperforming-commercial-real-estate loans, this exposure as a percentage of total-balance-sheet assets averages only 10% to 20%. And these banks have other income streams, such as proprietary-trading revenue, investment-banking fees, and credit-card fees and charges to bolster their bottom lines.
Regional and local community banks have as much as 80% of their balance sheets tied up in commercial real estate, and very few other sources of significant fee income to offset CRE losses.
It’s not the too-big-to-fail banks that are lending to consumers; they’re too busy catering to huge corporations, enslaving the credit card borrowers they pressed into servitude with low teaser rates, and pandering to lawmakers to preserve their monopolies and their outrageous executive compensation packages.
It’s the regional and community banks that lend to individuals and small businesses that are sinking fast under the weight of CRE. How are they going to be the credit providers to consumers and the backers of the small businesses we are counting on to create jobs for the country’s 18 million unemployed?
Lawmakers and regulators expect to buy time for the economy to grow in order to drive up commercial-real-estate prices and save the banks that are threatened. But their rescue vehicle of choice is the banking sector that is foundering because of the growing gale of commercial-real-estate losses. So please forgive me if I label these Washington insiders as grossly incompetent, self-serving and deluded.
Extend, pretend and stick your head in the sand is the order of the moment.
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