Greece bailed out – what lies ahead except default?

by | May 2, 2010 | Economic Intrigue, UK Misery | 1 comment

From the BBC, news of the IMF/EU bailout package agreed today :

Eurozone members and the IMF have agreed a 110bn-euro (£95bn; $146.2bn) three-year bail-out package to rescue Greece’s embattled economy.

In return for the loans, Greece will make major austerity cuts which Prime Minister George Papandreou said involved “great sacrifices”.

The EU will provide 80bn euros in funding and the rest will come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The deal is designed to prevent Greece from defaulting on its massive debt.

How successful this will be remains to be seen but Oisin Zimmermann writing over at Zero Hedge has a rather downbeat view entitled The beginning of the end, detailing the financial and political problems ahead in which he sees default as inevitable (anyone with an interest in financial matters should go and read the whole article) :

So, where to from here? It will be obvious in a moment, that some form of restructuring of Greek debt is inevitable in the long run. But in the short run, there are really only 2 scenarios that I see as
likely;
The bailout is agreed – this buys time, approx 2-3 years max until a managed default can be arranged.
The bailout falters – Greece goes straight to an unmanaged default.

Scenario 1 – Managed Default
• Other PIIGS and possibly Austria immediately see their cost of funding rise, and stay high.
• Market seeks credible & concrete reassurance from Eurozone core on other PIIGS debt but
does not get it.
• Cascade of managed defaults across the PIIGS as debt is restructured.
• Greece stays with EUR while austerity measures are acted out, with funding from IMF & EU.
• Steady decline of EUR vs. every other major currency.
• Bunds widen (prices fall) as Germany seen to be “on the hook” for all bailouts.
• Banks across Eurozone need further bailouts.
• Inflation begins to hit Eurozone in earnest.
• Current Eurozone stays intact up to & until austerity measures become too severe causing a PIIGS member to leave. (Argentina Scenario – see end of piece)

Scenario 2 – Unmanaged Default
• Greek population suffer immediate unavoidable austerity.
• Popular unrest/political chaos/creditor confrontation culminates in Greece leaving the Euro.
(Argentina Scenario)
• Other PIIGS members and possibly Austria immediately have major funding difficulties.
• Other weak EUR members forced to declare bankruptcy and leave the EUR soon after,
devalue & become more competitive. (Argentina Scenario)
• EUR weakens considerably against every major currency until only the core members are
left, after which it strengthens.
• Bunds tighten and stay risk free.
• Banks in Germany, Switzerland & France need further bailouts, banks in PIIGS see major
bank runs, flight to quality benefits Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and other major international
players.
• Inflation begins to hit Eurozone in earnest, but is taken back under control when weaker
members are removed
• Weaker member suffer hyperinflation. (Argentina Scenario)

Ultimately, it will all come down to market confidence :

Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence
– especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over continuously – is the key
factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or
corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang! – confidence
collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.
This Time is Different – Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

As I see it, blowing up banks doesn’t instill a deal of confidence in a happy ending (via reuters) :

(Reuters) – A bomb exploded at a branch of HSBC bank in Athens on Sunday, damaging the entrance but causing no injuries, police said.

1 Comment

  1. MarkSpizer

    great post as usual!