Two lists of why the UK may or may not be likely to go the way of Greece.

Firstly, FT Alphaville reporting on comments by RBS FX strategist Paul Robson on why the Pound should be gaining from Euro weakness and why the UK won’t be going the way of Greece :

1.) – There won’t be any nasty revisions to UK budget data.

2.) – The UK owns the printing presses.

3.) – The UK has its own currency to help the adjustment process, export order books are lengthening.

4.) – The UK can make decisions much more quickly and doesn’t have to rely on agreement from the EU, ECB, IMF and Germany.

5.) – The UK doesn’t have to rely on the generosity of others.

6.) – The UK financial system is getting stronger (read: higher future receipts from privatisation), not weaker as is the case in Greece.

7.) – The UK economy is recovering.

8.) – Demand for Gilts remains strong and investors are already underweight.

9.) – There will be (far more) confidence that the UK will deliver on its pledges.

10.) -Interest rates are appropriate for the UK, not the average of the Euro area.

Feeling bullish yet?

Secondly, a counterpoint from the comments on the same article on why the UK probably will be following the path of Greece :

1.) – There won’t be any nasty revisions to UK budget data, just the small problem of deferred deleveraging and the vast majority of the nation’s wealth tied up in unproductive assets such as houses

2.) – The UK owns the printing presses and can debase sterling to its heart’s content, though this pesky Euro weakness means we’re going to have to go even further to regain competitiveness

3.) – The UK has its own currency to help the adjustment process, so can impoverish the whole nation, while export order books are lengthening, to the extent that we make anything any more.

4.) – The UK can make decisions much more quickly and doesn’t have to rely on agreement from the EU, ECB, IMF and Germany, meaning we can decide in haste and repent at leisure, though the hung parliament might hold some of those quick decisions up somewhat.

5.) – The UK doesn’t have to rely on the generosity of others. In fact we’re so self-suifficient we’ve built an economy based almost entirely on selling ever more expensive houses to one another.

6.) – The UK financial system is getting stronger (read: higher future receipts from privatisation), not weaker as is the case in Greece, although there isn’t really that much left to sell. No.10 must be worth something, surely?

7.) – The UK economy is recovering and green shoots abound as long as gilt yields don’t rise, house prices don’t fall, public sector cuts continue to be deferred and interest rates remain near zero.

8.) – Demand for Gilts remains strong and investors are already underweight, though that may change when we actually start dealing with the structural problems in our economy and taking some of the pain deferred for 18 months.

9.) – There will be (far more) confidence that the UK will deliver on its pledges. At least, there will be when we get round to actually making some real pledges when a new government is installed and has looked over the books properly. Until then your guess is as good as mine.

10.) -Interest rates are appropriate for the UK, not the average of the Euro area. This is important because household leverage is at utterly terrifying levels and has not even started to decline, so damn right near-zero rates are appropriate. Far better to unleash inflation, no?

Feeling bullish yet?

Dumbass.

I have to say that I would agree with the latter more than the former especially as :

5.) – The UK doesn’t have to rely on the generosity of others. In fact we’re so self-suifficient we’ve built an economy based almost entirely on selling ever more expensive houses to one another.

is both amusing and unfortunately spot on.